CATEGORY: Thoughts

It’s hush-hush no more. Former spymasters are coming out of the woodworks to spook the current government into not attacking Iran.

First it was Meir Dagan, the “superhero” Spymaster from the Mossad, who, as soon as he left the service, launched a campaign against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak – over the issue of attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities. In his own words, Dagan says that a military attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities is the “stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.” He also says that he has no faith in Netanyahu and Barak’s ability to lead the country into such a fateful decision.

And now comes Yuval Diskin, the former head of the internal spy service, the Shin Bet. In YouTube videos released over the weekend, the former security chief goes one up on even Dagan’s scathing criticism of the Israeli leadership.

In the videos, Diskin makes the following main points:

1. The current Israeli government has no interest in negotiating with the Palestinian Authority because PM Netanyahu knows that if he makes even the slightest compromise or move toward the Palestinians that his erstwhile stable coalition will implode.

2. Anything else the government says about this issue is rubbish. Don’t believe the spin coming from Jerusalem that there is no partner on the Palestinian side. It’s true, says Diskin, I’ve been there and I’ve seen this government up close. READ MORE

What does the future hold for the Israel-Egypt relationship? Will Egypt become increasingly, openly hostile? Will the Camp David Peace Accords between the two neighbors hold? Will Egypt provide diplomatic and security cover for Hamas in Gaza? How will the central government in Cairo, whoever it turns out to be, handle the growing lawlessness of the Sinai Peninsula?

These are just some of the important questions people are asking themselves regarding the important relationship between Israel and Egypt since the overthrow of the Mubarak regime. They are coming up again today as the Egyptian national gas company unilaterally terminated its contract with Israel.

The first, most pressing issue is the constant stream of terror from the Sinai, and its strategic implications for both countries. Sinai is three times the size of Israel. It is a vast badlands that is becoming a serious strategic headache for Israel. The central government in Cairo has lost control of the territory, which is now rife with armed Bedouin groups and Islamic fundamentalist cells. The two are mixing and influencing each other for the first time, and the result is noxious. The Bedouins have traditionally not been Islamic fundamentalists, and that could be changing. Israeli military intelligence has revealed that the IDF has thwarted about 10 terror plots being hatched in the Sinai. That’s a lot. Israel will find it increasingly difficult not to enter the Sinai in force and take care of the problem. But if Cairo doesn’t take care of the problem, we might have to. And that could lead to the dreaded confrontation between Israel and Egypt. This might even be what the various terror groups in Gaza and the Sinai are aiming for.

The peace treaty with Israel will not likely be abrogated, but the border will not be quiet. There are those who believe that it is inevitable that the Muslim Brotherhood and the Salafists take control over all Egypt. I wouldn’t rush into this conclusion. The Egyptian military has in its hands all of the powers of the Presidency, and the Parliament is not in control of the country yet. One of the main bones of contention now in Egypt between the military and the Islamists is over who will write the country’s new constitution. So far, the military has not allowed the Parliament to determine the nature of the new constitution, and it is unlikely that they will allow this in the future. In the impossible economic and diplomatic situation that Egypt finds itself in today, the military cannot allow the Islamists to create the conditions for an Islamic state governed by Sharia Law, devoid of tourism, development, international investment, and antagonistic to the West. READ MORE

Lieutenant Colonel Shalom Eisner is a soldier’s soldier. The guy is a deputy commander of the Jordan Valley brigade in the Israeli army, an armored brigade trained to fight other armies, head to head, face to face. His whole life he’s been preparing to take on Syrian and Iraqi armored formations, not Danish peace activists.

The blow that Eisner delivered to the ISM activist is a Krav Maga blow that recruits are taught in their first week of basic training. It’s what you’re supposed to do if you’re face to face with your enemy; it’s what you’re trained to do if you find yourself in hand to hand combat, when the bullets are out, or you’re too close to your enemy to shoot, if the enemy and you are at each other’s throats, on death ground, and there is nothing left to do but fight for your life. It’s a last-ditch move you perform on Syrian troops, Hezbollah guerrillas, Hamas gunmen. It’s not a move you pull against unarmed activists, no matter how provocative they are. Eisner’s life was not in danger. At most, his fingers were fractured. He was pissed off and he lost his cool. But he shouldn’t have even been there in the first place. READ MORE